Okay, so earlier, I posted about Cnn.com's
awesome looking Election Page. And all day, without thinking too much of it, I've been working off of their poll result clock.
The first polls get out at 7pm, EST.
Currently, their countdown clock is at less than 30 minutes left.
Further investigation shows that the clock works off of your computer's clock. But I have the right time here. AND Cnn.com is showing the right time. So if they're not counting down to the closing of the first polls, what ARE they counting down to?
First thought? At 4:00pm, Paul Begala is going to eat Tucker Carlson on live television.
Second thought? At 4:00pm, Kathy will be given a pie. On live television.
More likely thought: Their clock is coded wrong.
However, I bet that by 4:00pm, they'll start mentioning VERY preliminary exit polls from the 7pm closing states, especially any ones they're very sure of. Nobody wants to make a mistake, but let's look at the states closing at 7pm. I mean, the polls closing at 7pm. The whole state isn't closing. Hopefully.
Georgia: Bush, 15 EV
Indiana: Bush, 11 EV (There's almost no doubt about this)
Kentucky: Bush, 8 EV
South Carolina: Bush, 8 EV (also almost no doubt)
Virginia: Bush, 13 EV (so much no doubt it's unbelievable)
Vermont: Kerry, 3 EV (solid as a civil union)
So here's the thing. These are, across the board, pretty easy to predict. Granted, there may be tremendous surprises and upsets, but don't be scared if, for the first few hours, it looks like Bush is winning this thing easily. We still have all night to go. And the day after that. And weeks, and weeks, and weeks...
alex
UPDATE: Okay, I wrote too soon. Given history, and current polling, I do feel confident with my summation above. BUT, Slate puts Indiana on the razors edge, calling it for Kerry. We shall see.
40 Comments:
Hey guys,
A dejected Ankur (Met/Kerry fan) here, giving your misery some company. I won't be able to check CNN.com for at least a week, just like I couldn't bear going to ESPN.com after the 2000 World Series.
Question for Geoff: With Bush winning and the Yankees losing, how long before you can look at the internet again (I'm assuming that you, like me, only use the web for ESPN.com and CNN.com)?
Hang in there, buds.
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