And then there were 7:30
Yeah, I don't know what's up with my CNN Clock. It now tells me there's 15 minutes until the 7:30pm Polls close.
So let's talk about 7:30pm:
North Carolina: Bush, 15 EV
Ohio: See Below
West Virginia: Bush, 5 EV
So 7:30 is actually a lot dicier than 7pm, and could be particularly indicative and crucial to the election.
First off, we have NC & WV, which are both weakly for Bush.
Then there's Ohio. Right now, both Slate & Electoral Vote have it for Bush. However, Wonkette's early polling, which even she admits could be based on ANYTHING, puts Kerry slightly ahead.
The amount of effort put into Ohio, both by the Kerry campaign and young voters travelling to the state MIGHT push it to Kerry.
Conventional wisdom holds that no President has ever won the election without winning Ohio. Yeah, I know this isn't a conventional election, but I still think this is the first state to really pay attention to.
-alex
So let's talk about 7:30pm:
North Carolina: Bush, 15 EV
Ohio: See Below
West Virginia: Bush, 5 EV
So 7:30 is actually a lot dicier than 7pm, and could be particularly indicative and crucial to the election.
First off, we have NC & WV, which are both weakly for Bush.
Then there's Ohio. Right now, both Slate & Electoral Vote have it for Bush. However, Wonkette's early polling, which even she admits could be based on ANYTHING, puts Kerry slightly ahead.
The amount of effort put into Ohio, both by the Kerry campaign and young voters travelling to the state MIGHT push it to Kerry.
Conventional wisdom holds that no President has ever won the election without winning Ohio. Yeah, I know this isn't a conventional election, but I still think this is the first state to really pay attention to.
-alex
posted by Elephant Larry at 4:20 PM
1 comments
1 Comments:
what's up, EL? other-stefan here from I-town, where BC'04 may actually get shut out.
milwaukee's paper (www.jsonline.com) has a nice blog going, talking about some dirty tricks.
on the blue side: slashing all the tires of all the cars and vans in some Repub. committee parking lot, so they can't use the vans to pick up voters (unless stores start selling tires again or something).
on the red: a few people tried to act as a human chain, blocking some Dem. committee's driveway so they couldn't get out, yelling, spitting, etc, etc.
I know that we Democrats are, in point of fact, the Good party, and that Good should be done, but it's hard not to snicker at the differing levels of prank effectiveness.
I think you're right, in that a Kerry blowout is more likely than a Bush blowout, but Republican lawyers scare the bejeezus out of me. I'm treating this thing as "up in the air" until Inauguration Day.
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